West Ham Season Preview 19/20 Part 3: Prediction
Prediction
The change in formation has seen a flurry of goals, both for and against, and that’s been enough to ignite some imaginations and to coax some pundits into overrating West Ham’s prospects given the lure of some of the names at their disposal.
Although there is now a more clear idea of how Pellegrini is going to accommodate all of these creative talents into the same starting XI, it’ll take time for things to gel, for rhythms to be found, for partnerships to be forged, and there are still major question marks over the balance of the side.
I also think reading too much into the efficacy of the attack during pre-season is mistake given the quality of the opposition — it’s easy to get carried away with Lanzini scoring 3 in 3, but a long ranger against Fulham, a shot in off the post in acres of space against Hertha’s second string, and a tap-in from a move originating with a defensive blunder are a bit misleading.
The reality is West Ham overperformed last season.
On the attacking end, there is so much work to do. They were 15th for shots per game (11.6), 15th place for shots in the box per game (6.3), and 14th place for xG according to Understat’s model. Haller and Fornals are excellent individual players, but will their inclusion provide enough of an upgrade to shift these metrics up to even league average level?
The numbers stack up equally poorly on the other side of the ball in terms of both shot quantity and shot quality: 5th highest number of shots conceded per game (13.9) and 5th highest xG conceded per game. It’s difficult to see that improving at all given that Pellegrini is pushing the side to be even more open than they were last season, so any improvements are going to have to contend with and compensate for already horrible defensive metrics becoming even worse.
That might be surprising to those who viewed the football played by Pellegrini last season as entertaining, but a lot of the attacking play was stagnant once possession sequences reached the final third. West Ham were mediocre at best last season and the chances of drastically changing that seem quite slim.
Of West Ham’s 52 points, 13 came against Cardiff/Huddersfield/Fulham and 10 came from Spurs/Chelsea/Arsenal/United. If Villa/Norwich/Sheffield United are stronger than the three relegated teams (seems highly plausible) and if the top 6 are less dysfunctional (also seems plausible), then some of those points are going to evaporate. All of that was achieved with Fabianski playing every single week and being essentially faultless for 38 games. If Fabianski has a bit of a drop off, we’ll be in trouble next year.
9 points of those 52 points came from 3 consecutive nothing games to finish the season as well. Is all of that repeatable? Can we bank on that happening again?
So presuming West Ham pick up slightly fewer points against the best and the worst the league has to offer, in order to maintain the finishing position of last season, we’ll have to improve against other midtable teams. Looking around at the way other sides have strengthened this summer, it’s hard to see that happening as a number of those sides seem to be better coached, have better squad structure, or both.
Leicester have just lost Maguire, but the additions of Tielemans, Ayoze Peréz, Dennis Praet and James Justin give them added goal threat, dynamism in midfield, and versatile cover for both full-back positions. Plus they have a full pre-season with a tactically astute manager who has pedigree with upper-midtable teams and showed promising signs at the end of the season.
With Wolves there are the lingering question marks over early Europa League involvement and the way they had a virtually ever-present starting XI last season. If injuries to key players hit, it could derail them, but most underlying metrics had them as the 4th best team in the country last season so there’s only so far they can fall.
Everton are perhaps the most vulnerable. Moise Kean adds some firepower and dribbling threat to their frontline, as does Alex Iwobi with his ability to find passes into the box, but the loss of Idrissa Gueye could destabilise them and leave them unbalanced in the same way West Ham are. It just depends how well Delph and Gbamin can replicate what Gueye brought to the side.
West Ham usurped Watford on the final day of the season to finish two points above them but there was very little to choose between the sides over the course of the season. Watford have done very little other than chucking Craig Dawson in to supplement their backline, so they are a candidate to drop off a bit this season, which gives West Ham someone to catch. The addition of Ismaila Sarr and Danny Welbeck adds some pace and variety and depth to their attacking positions and they’re the sort of players who will enable Javi Gracía to implement the more aggressive high pressing style that Watford used in the first half of the season that coincided with their best performances and results. They’re one of the more difficult teams to gauge.
The fortunes of the three south coast teams are probably key in determining just how high in the table West Ham will finish. Philip Billing’s arrival from Huddersfield bolsters their midfield with a different profile of player and with Jack Stacey and Lloyd Kelly now on their books, Bournemouth have now got some sorely needed quality and depth in the full-back positions, although the latter is injured. On that note, the injury to David Brooks might cost them in the short term. Arnaut Danjuma is an unknown quantity (to me at least) who might be able to bring something to the table to make up for the absence of Brooks. They’re still desperately short of a quality goalkeeper though and they’ll start well before the wheels eventually come off and end up finishing 12th, as is tradition.
Southampton feel like the team best placed to surge up the table. Having a full pre-season under your belt is vital for any manager, but it’s even more significant when that manager’s playing style revolves around an aggressive pressing system, which is dependent on fitness and co-ordination amongst players. Therefore this summer will have been significant for Ralph Hasenhüttl as it’s been the first chance he’s had to properly get his ideas across to his players without the immediate pressure of week-to-week games. Saints have done a nice job bringing in Che Adams who has all the attributes to thrive in a busy, direct forward line. Like Danjuma at Bournemouth, Moussa Djenepo feels like a bit of a gamble and when you’re buying this profile of player from B-tier leagues, you never quite know whether you’re getting a Mo Elyounoussi or a Sadio Mané. Saints’ backline looks a little suspect, although Kevin Danso’s mobility and composure on the ball could make him a shrewd late acquisition, but there are enough exciting pieces in that team to make them seem like a contender to kick on in a big way this season.
Meanwhile Brighton are the biggest mystery going into this season. Over the last few transfer windows, it’s felt like they’ve stockpiling talent for this transition to a more possession-oriented style of football post-Hughton. In Graham Potter they have a manager who will certainly be looking to play with that passing approach and the addition of Adam Webster, a marauding left-footed CB, the shift to a back 3 seems imminent. Like Bournemouth and Southampton, Brighton have signed a wide attacker from the Belgian league, although Leandro Trossard is a slightly different type of player; more of a passer than a dribbler. It’s interesting to see clubs putting their faith in players from Belgium (see also: Wesley to Villa) and whoever’s signing settles the best could impact the finishing positions of those three clubs.
Brighton splashed out big on Maupay late in the window and how good he ends up being will be determined by how well Brighton implement their possession focused system: Maupay’s good but he’s been playing for a possession-heavy side who excelled at getting the ball forward into feet quickly and who are good at getting players up to support the striker. If you stick him in a side that has much less of the ball where he has to spend a lot of time isolated, he’d be much less effective — his physique would prevent him from holding the ball up well and his lack of a burst of pace would mean he’s not much of a threat in behind. He could explode though if Brighton get everything behind him right.
It’s also difficult to pin down the quality level of the other 6 teams in the division but they feel as though they’ll be less of a threat to West Ham’s league position than the others.
Palace’s defence will be much weaker with Aaron Wan-Bissaka now gone and Joel Ward reclaiming the RB spot as his own. They’ve added solid senior pros in Gary Cahill and James McCarthy to supplement the central areas of the pitch but neither of them will make a tangible difference to results. The permanent signing of Jordan Ayew is fine but not much more than that either. This is an old squad who are going to be relying on an unsettled Wilf Zaha to drag them upwards while hoping that Christian Benteke manages to undo whatever curse it is that’s robbed him of his powers and his confidence. They’ll be drab and compact and difficult to break down and that might be enough to keep them ticking over.
Burnley are Burnley. Drinkwater, Rodriguez, Pieters, and Peacock-Farrell are more depth but don’t appreciably improve the starting eleven. Dyche has juggled the goalkeeping situation quite well, cashing in on a peak Tom Heaton in order to give the excellent Nick Pope the number 1 shirt. Burnley will be well-structured and robust but there are, as always, doubts about their ability to score goals and if one or more of the promoted sides catch fire, they could struggle.
Newcastle have made some interesting signings and an awful managerial appointment. It’ll be fascinating to see whether talent or poor coaching makes more of a difference to them this season. Losing Ayoze Pérez and Salomon Rondón over the summer evaporates basically all of their attacking threat from last season, but the signings of Joelinton and Saint-Maximin are exciting gambles and Emil Krafth and Jetro Willems sort out problems on the left and right sides of defence. Along with signing Miguel Almíron in January, Newcastle have made some smart acquisitions over the last couple of windows. It’s enough to make you wonder whether Rafa Benítez’s insistence on autonomy over transfer dealings rather than embracing the process has been holding the club back. That line of thought is immediately undermined by the fact they signed Andy Carroll on a free transfer, though.
Then there’s the promoted sides. Norwich were excellent as a collective in the Championship last season but there are too many questions surrounding them to confidently back them to stay up: does Teemu Pukki cut the mustard as a lone striker in the Premier League? Does the athleticism of Max Aarons and Jamal Lewis translate into a higher standard of football? Will Marco Stierpermann and Emi Buendía find the space and time to roam around and be as effective as they were last season? Will their decision to mostly stick with their squad from their promotion campaign pay off or will they rue not strengthening?
Villa have had to undertake a much needed overhaul of their playing squad but such a radical shift in playing staff is always going to cause doubts about how quickly they’ll settle and blend together. They’ve also banked on players from second tier leagues such as Belgium (Wesley, Engels, Nakamba) and Turkey (Trezeguet) coming good, although the players they’ve signed with experience of domestic football in England (Heaton, Targett, Mings, Jota, Konsa) all feel like sound, if expensive signings. It feels like Villa will be either boom or bust depending on how well these players fit together. Dean Smith can find the right mixture of players and if he can tweak his playing style offer enough defensive security, Villa have a chance. Their squad is strong on paper but getting it right on the pitch will be a different matter.
Finally there’s Sheffield United, the most tactically intriguing side in the entire Premier League next season. Does Wilder have the bottle to stick with his overlapping wing-backs, two central strikers, and his lack of physicality in central midfield now he’s playing in the top flight? Or will he spring another innovation? They’ve been playing 3–5–2 throughout pre-season, so it feels like it’ll be more of the same from Blades, but it’ll also be interesting to see how many Premier League clubs have done their homework on Sheffield United, and how many get undone by O’Connell and Basham. In terms of signings, they’ve relied on the core of solid, dependable pros from last season to form the spine of their squad and supplemented that by bringing in some players who will be hit and miss, but provide that something a little special from time to time (Ravel Morrison, Callum Robinson, Lys Mousset). Along with the likes of Phil Jagielka and Oli McBurnie, Sheffield United have also been sensible by bringing in players who will be able to contribute in the Championship should they be relegated. I think they’ll cause problems and be the only promoted side to retain their Premier League status by the end of the season.
All of which is to say, I’m not sure that West Ham have improved at all compared to these handful of midtable clubs, so they’re going to have their work cut out to match last season’s points total, let alone surpass it, and that spells a comfortable bottom half finish for us. I see us somewhere between 12th and 15th, depending on how effectively our attacking options gel.
But look, if we’re going to be mediocre, I’d much rather do it by stacking the team full of attack-minded players with the individual brilliance to drag us points out of nowhere than playing ultra-compact football to keep games tight and nick a result. Give me Pellegrini over Moyes/Allardyce any day.
The frustrating thing is that this squad isn’t far from being genuinely good. All we need is a little cohesion. It’s not happened this summer so we need to just get through this season and then fully commit to remodelling central midfield. In 12 months time, the squad will be jammed full of peak age attacking talent: Lanzini and Anderson will be 27, Haller 26, and Fornals 24. This has to be the last season of laying the groundwork because the window to make a real push to capitalise on the talent currently in the squad will begin to close after that.
This season will undoubtedly be entertaining to watch, but it feels like it’ll be enormously frustrating too. As ever with West Ham, it feels like we’re one transfer window away from being a serious force in the Premier League. We just need the right direction at the club and I’m not sure this Pellegrini/Husillos duo is the one to get us where we need to be in the long run and if it’s not effective in the short term, doubts are going to be cast over the wisdom of this experiment.
