The Declan Rice Hype Machine
Watching West Ham was a miserable experience last season but one of the few bright points of the campaign was the emergence of Declan Rice.
After making his Premier League debut as a 91st minute substitute on the last day of the 16/17 season against Burnley, Rice went on to make 15 Premier League starts this season — the only players under the age of 20 to start more games were Trent Alexander-Arnold and Tom Davies — as he firmly established himself as a member of the first team during David Moyes’ tenure.
Rice’s performances earned him wide acclaim and he was voted the club’s Young Player of the Year, with West Ham fans heralding him as a potential superstar. A pair of Man of the Match performances over the course of a few recently friendlies for the Republic of Ireland have further stoked these flames and the retiring skipper John O’Shea has even suggested that Rice will captain the national team further down the line (despite David Gold’s moronic insistence that Rice could become an England player under Manuel Pellegrini). He’s generally regarded as someone who has an immensely bright future.
Personally, I don’t see it.
He’s clearly a talented player, but he’s limited and I can’t see him surpassing those limitations to become anything more than a passable bottom-half Premier League central defender.
That’s not to suggest that he’s bad — on the contrary, it’s impressive that he looks comfortable at that standard this early in his career. And he certainly has solid fundamentals: despite not being the tallest CB in the world, he copes well in the air; he’s not a complete lamp post when it comes to getting around the pitch, so he hasn’t been ruthlessly exposed for pace on a regular basis; he’s an assertive front-foot defender who likes to step in front of attackers to win the ball back; and he’s someone who rarely gets flustered in possession, who looks assured on the ball and is capable of playing basic passes.
It’s also easy to see why West Ham fans have latched onto him. Having an academy player burst onto the scene gives supporters something to cling onto and offers a glimmer of hope for the future in the middle of an otherwise grim season. (To be frank, the performances of the players around him were so poor at points that the bar for looking good in that West Ham team was exceedingly low, which helped his cause). The way Rice conducts himself on and off the pitch helps too: he gives the impression of someone who is humble, eager to impress, and keen to make the most of the opportunities he’s earned so far.
Rice’s playing style further endears him to fans; the way he snaps into tackles and chases loose balls like an overeager labrador provides the sort of demonstrative, tangible effort that always goes over well in the stands. When West Ham were under pressure at the back, more often than not, Declan Rice was the one to send a long clearance sailing over the top of the opposition defence for Marko Arnautović to chase. In a side that was woefully short of ideas going forward last season, that sort of direct, no-nonsense approach to alleviating pressure from Rice was well-received.
With that said, while there are positives to Rice’s game, they don’t outweigh the glaring deficiencies.
Those long passes into space rarely resulted in anything productive and on the occasions that it did, it was more to do with Arnautović dragging the team into threatening positions with his dribbling than the quality of the pass. Granted, that was clearly an instruction from his manager, but those kind of clearances have little utility unless your team is specifically drilled to play on the counter. Beyond that, Rice seems to be an unimaginative passer and has shown little evidence of being able to do more than recycle possession between his fellow defenders. He’s not someone who can break the lines with his dribbling either, like Harry Maguire or Jan Vertonghen. Again, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad player but it will prevent him from becoming a truly top level central defender.
His desire to step out into midfield to aggressively win the ball back leads to him making some decision rash decisions that drag his defensive line out of shape and the fact that we’ve only seen him play in a deep-lying defensive system where he is always surrounded by team-mates means that there are still question marks over his ability to defend in isolated one-on-one situations, especially out wide.
On that front, the way he coped against Andros Townsend when West Ham were caught in transition against Palace is cause for concern:
After squaring him up on the halfway line, Rice never gets close enough to Townsend to put a proper challenge in nor does he slow him down enough to stifle the counter attack and allow his team-mates to track back in support.
The biggest problem he has though, the one that is the source of the majority of the mistakes he makes is this: he is constantly ball-watching.
Ball-Watching
(A quick note on these clips: these are all instances where Rice has made a mistake that resulted in a goal. That might seem a little harsh — every player has moments where they switch off and Rice is perhaps unfortunate that his errors were punished by the opposition — but it’s something I’ve noticed him do regularly and it’s more prevalent in his game than these handful of clips might suggest. It’s just more difficult to find footage where a mistake hasn’t ended in a goal.)
Bobby Wood vs USA (A):
Ireland’s organisation is a bit sloppy but they’ve gone man-to-man with a couple of spare players marking space on the edge of the box. Rice is one of those players and, although he’s not initially marking Bobby Wood, he is the closest player to him as the ball is delivered. The American striker is in Rice’s zone so he should at least be aware of what he’s doing.
As the free-kick sails over towards the back post, Rice turns to look at the ball while Wood peels off the back of him and into the middle of the box.
Rice is so fixated on the ball that he instinctively moves towards it as the header floats back across the face of goal. At no point during any of this does Rice check his surroundings.
Wood then darts into the 6-yard box to prod the ball home while Rice is rooted to the spot.
To be fair, Darragh Lenihan is guilty of doing the same thing and he’s probably more responsible for Wood scoring than Rice is, but had Rice interpreted the situation correctly instead of getting sucked towards the ball, he could have put himself in a position to cut out the header back across the box.
Alexandre Lacazette vs Arsenal (A):
A similar sort of situation occurred in the prelude to Lacazette’s second goal in West Ham’s 4–1 drubbing at the Emirates in April.
When Ramsey receives the ball on the left side of the box, West Ham are essentially man-marking and Rice is the closest player to Lacazette.
Ramsey skips around Zabaleta and Rice decides to go and close him down. Throughout this passage of play, Rice is so focused on the ball that he doesn’t look over his shoulder at any point. He is either oblivious to Lacazette’s presence or ignores it, even though the striker is in his field of vision when the initial pass into Ramsey is made.
By the time Ramsey plays his pass, Rice has completely abandoned Lacazette in the middle of the 6-yard box, leaving the Welshman with the option of a simple cut back. Lacazette easily sidesteps Carroll’s despairing lunge and fires a tame shot that Hart fails to keep out, even though he gets a hand on it.
After originally moving into the box, Lacazette finds himself in an ocean of space by standing still. Rice could have used some help from Angelo Ogbonna (number 21), who should have sprinted in to pick up Lacazette as he saw play develop, but it’s a poor bit of defending from the young Irishman that derives from his lack of awareness. Ramsey is in a relatively unthreatening position; he’s on his weaker foot, out wide, at a narrow angle. There’s virtually no chance of him scoring from there and he would have had few options for a pass if Rice had marked Lacazette instead.
Glenn Murray vs Brighton (A):
Perhaps the most egregious example of Rice’s tunnel vision is found in Glenn Murray’s opening goal for Brighton.
The ball gets spread out to Knockaert on the right wing and, as the pass is made, Rice shuffles across and begins to close down.
Rice notices that Cresswell has tracked back and decides to let him close down the ball while Rice drops back into a much deeper position, completely unaware of Glenn Murray lurking on the left wing.
Declan Rice stands and watches as Pascal Groß threads his pass through to Murray, ignorant of his own position relative to Ogbonna and Collins and so preoccupied with the ball that he doesn’t realise he’s playing everyone onside.
This move started down West Ham’s right flank so Rice, as the far-side defender, should, theoretically, have had a complete picture of how the phase of play was progressing down the opposite side. At the very least he should know roughly where Brighton’s centre forward is and he should be aware that he’s the deepest member of his backline. It’s not as if it’s some lightning fast counter attack either — Stephens’ cross-field pass is fairly slow, Knockaert’s first touch is a bit bobbly and it takes a second for it to bounce through to Groß. Rice had time to check what was going on, assess his position, and adjust it but he didn’t, preferring to retreat deeper while only paying attention to the ball.
Otamendi vs City (A):
That inclination to drop too deep when he can’t actively challenge for the ball appears to be an entrenched part of his game, too. Against City, Rice takes up a decent position in-line with Ogbonna and Zabaleta on the edge of the 6-yard box but his eyes are firmly trained on Jesus and Sterling on the wing rather than on eventual goalscorer Nicolás Otamendi.
Sterling lays it off to Jesus, who bursts into the box. Just prior to this screenshot, Rice does actually have a quick glance over his right shoulder, but he either doesn’t register Otamendi as a threat, or he assumes Zabaleta is going to pick him up.
As Gabriel Jesus drives towards the byline, Rice sidesteps back into the 6-yard box as well as inexplicably moving closer towards the back post. It’s an odd position that turns him into a non-factor defensively and opens up space at the front post — it leaves him on his heels which prevents him from springing forward and making a meaningful tackle on Otamendi, who darts past him to finish.
It’s a cracking ball by Jesus and a strong finish by the Argentine, but had Rice given himself the full picture earlier in the move when the ball was still out wide, he could have assessed the situation better and moved closer to Otamendi before he could get the jump on the West Ham defence.
Silva vs City (A):
Another momentary lapse in concentration in the same game cost his team a result.
Goalscorer David Silva starts the move in possession in the right half space and Rice is ostensibly picking up Agüero on the edge of the box.
Silva dribbles in field and then lays the ball off to Fabian Delph. Obiang has followed Silva and Edimilson Fernandes goes to press Delph. Meanwhile, Agüero drifts into the D and Rice initially tracks him but then decides to drop back into the defensive line.
Delph quickly passes the ball out to Kevin De Bruyne who has occupied the position David Silva was originally in. Silva drifts in between Obiang and Fernandes while those two go to close the ball down and ends up standing next to his striker. Rice drops even deeper and is now fixated on the ball.
As KDB delivers the cross, Silva continues his run and Rice gets sucked towards the ball because he doesn’t notice Silva’s movement.
That lack of awareness costs Rice. By the time he reacts to Silva’s run, it’s too late; he’s been drawn under the flight of the cross and Silva actually runs across the front of him to get in behind, leaving the West Ham man on the wrong side. Silva still has a lot of work to do but Rice doesn’t get close to him. Rice’s body shape is also quite poor; he’s flat-footed and too square, which makes it difficult for him to pivot when the ball floats over his head.
I do have some sympathy with him here. Those last two examples are harsh — these moves happen extremely quickly and they only result in a goal due to quality delivery and intelligent movement from some of the most talented players on the planet. But it’s too easy to dismiss this sort of thing by saying that it’s City, so it can’t be helped. Games against top 6 clubs comprise almost a third of the Premier League season, so how young defenders cope in these scenarios is significant.
There’s something to be said for the way these two lapses in concentration happen in situations where Rice is forced into switching who he’s marking. A team’s ability to fluidly change markers like that entirely hinges on the quality of the defence’s communication. With more senior players around him, that shouldn’t be Rice’s responsibility and he could do with more guidance from Zabaleta in particular.
Crouch vs Stoke (H):
This instance is similar to the Lacazette goal in that it involves Rice’s tunnel vision causing him to switch off and ignore a player who wanders through his peripheral vision.
Shaqiri knocks a ball out wide to Eric Pieters and Zabaleta pushes forward to put pressure on the ball. Declan Rice shuttles across into the space that his RB has just left and Mame Biram Diouf moves inside.
Rice gets into position while he’s watching the ball, ignores Diouf’s movement, and gets his body shape horribly wrong.
The Irishman only manages to turn and clock where his man is when the pass has travelled halfway towards Diouf. It leaves him no time to react and Diouf can take a touch in the middle of the area under little initial pressure.
The pass is a bit behind him but Diouf swivels and has a weak shot that is blocked by the onrushing Noble. From there, Stoke eventually work the ball back out to Shaqiri who takes a pot shot from just outside the area. Hart spills the shot to Peter Crouch’s feet, who has been played onside by Zabaleta who darted back to cover and then lazily failed to push up.
Rice is by no means directly responsible for what transpired here, but he could have made Stoke’s life more difficult by stopping them from entering the box so easily in an earlier phase of play.
Defending Set Pieces
Another way this ball-watching habit impacts Rice’s game is when he is forced to defend crosses. In particular, Rice seems to really struggle to defend set pieces effectively.
Mike van der Hoorn vs Swansea (A):
Mike van der Hoorn gives the young defender a little push…
… and sends Rice for a hot dog with a shift of his body weight.
Rice panics because he’s lost his man. He desperately turns his head to try and find him but he can’t fully see him over his shoulder. The little stutter-step by van der Hoorn leaves Rice on his heels so by the time the corner arrives at the back post, he’s left helpless as the Swansea man powers the header home.
Oumar Niasse vs Everton (H):
Rice got himself in another mess at the back post from a corner in the last game of the season. Again, he gets rattled by a slight push from Jagielka (Rice probably needs to work on his upper body strength a bit) and struggles to adjust his feet quickly enough to follow Jagielka as he peels off to the far stick.
He then misreads the depth of Baines’ corner and subsequently gets his positioning wrong so his header loops off the wrong side of his head to Morgan Schneiderlin on the penalty spot.
(This is also something we saw when Rice decided to duck under Aaron Ramsey’s cross. Some of that is probably down to miscommunication with Joe Hart but if Rice has read the flight of the ball correctly and decided to leave it, it’s a poor decision. If he’s misjudged the cross and thinks Ramsey’s delivery is curling wide, then that’s worrying in its own right.)
Ashley Williams vs Everton (A):
Rice gets done by a simple bit of movement by Williams but the odds were stacked against Rice from the outset, so this one is forgivable. He’d just come on as a substitute, Williams cleverly uses the screen to create some separation and then executes a brilliant header from a tough angle, and the front post zonal marker (Michail Antonio) doesn’t cut out the cross.
Part of the difficulty Rice has defending set pieces is that he’s given difficult assignments — Williams, van der Hoorn, and Jagielka are all much stronger than him — and it’s debatable whether that’s a case of poor organisation from David Moyes or a symbol of the trust placed in Declan Rice by his manager. Either way, Rice was a regular fixture in a West Ham side that conceded 16 goals from set pieces last season, the joint-3rd highest in the Premier League, and Manuel Pellegrini will have to evaluate the Irishman’s culpability for that record.
Some of this may seem harsh or unfair, but I’m simply trying to hold him to the standard that those who have been singing his praises have.
The most troubling aspect about Rice’s tendency to watch the ball and switch off is that it’s such a basic thing, the sort of flaw that should have been drilled out of him at youth team level. Clearly it’s not too late for him to eradicate it from his performances, but the fact that this habit has survived this long suggests that it’s quite deeply ingrained in him and might prove difficult to shake. As previously mentioned, the above clips are merely examples where his errors unfortunately cost his team a goal; there were plenty of instances last season where he got himself in trouble by watching the ball but his lapses in concentration weren’t capitalised on by the opposition. Maybe he’ll sort it out over the summer but, at the very least, it’s something to keep an eye on in the future.
Evaluating CBs is hard because the way central defenders play and what they’re specifically asked to do is often dictated by the tactical system they play.
It’s easy to argue either way for Rice in that regard: he was playing alongside some poor defenders and behind a West Ham midfield that, in terms of both individuals and structure, was awful and offered virtually no protection. Alternatively, you could say that Rice benefited from playing in a 5 at the back system that operated so deep that he didn’t have to worry about the space in behind, liberating him to play on the front foot, with a constant supply of cover from the 4 other defenders. Both of those things are probably true to varying degrees. Rice did well as part of a dysfunctional backline in a deeply flawed tactical system but that doesn’t absolve him of his deficiencies.
One thing that would give me a great deal of pause is the way he defended against Andros Townsend in that clip from the Palace game. Manuel Pellegrini has historically played with a back four in a high line. In that system, if Rice is playing at LCB he’ll be next to either Cresswell or Masuaku, who have proven themselves to be defensively suspect in different ways over the last few seasons, and if Rice is playing RCB it’ll almost certainly be alongside Ryan Fredericks who has largely compensated for his poor positioning with his pace at Championship level.
All of which makes me think Rice could have some real problems playing in a high line. He’s relatively mobile but he’s not the quickest player in the world by any means and if Pellegrini follows through with his pledge to play attacking football, West Ham’s defenders are going to have to face transitional situations like that Townsend one with increasingly regularity. It’s entirely plausible that Rice is going to be badly exposed next season if he’s frequently isolated one-on-one.
That’s less of a concern if West Ham decide to play with a proper screening midfielder who can drop in to create a back 3 when West Ham are in possession high up the pitch, but none of Noble/Obiang/Kouyaté have shown themselves to be capable of doing that effectively and there have been worryingly few links to players who fit that sort of profile in the gossip columns.
On that note, it’s worth mentioning that Rice’s highly acclaimed performances for Ireland have coincided with him playing as a holding midfielder. That’s where Slaven Bilić used Rice against United, Southampton, and Newcastle in the early part of last season and that role seems a more natural fit for him — Rice’s lack of positional discipline and spatial awareness, and his tendency to switch off, are less of a problem when he has players behind him to cover. If he continues to make similar errors, then at least they’re occurring in less dangerous areas of the pitch.
He’d thrive as a part of a midfield 3 if he was used a pure ball-winner, someone who was unshackled and given license to chase and harry to regain possession for his side. His limitations on the ball would be mitigated by playing in midfield compared to playing at the back in a possession-oriented system, due to having a wider range of options for a simple pass when he’s stationed higher up the pitch.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, his ceiling as a CB at the minute is probably someone like Martin Kelly, James Chester or Jack Stephens: defenders who are or have been respectable but unspectacular squad players for bottom-half Premier League clubs.
With reports emerging last week that Rice rejected a new long-term contract from West Ham because their initial offer didn’t meet his £30k p/w wage demands, the club need to closely evaluate how much they think a player with his skillset is worth. At present, I think that money could be allocated better elsewhere and I would be reluctant to offer him that kind of deal until it becomes clear how he fits into the manager’s new system.
The caveat to all of this is that he’s 19 and only has one season of senior football under his belt. There’s room for him to grow but those who are falling over themselves to proclaim Rice as the next best thing would do well to temper their expectations.
Unless he addresses his weaknesses and plugs the significant holes in his game, Declan Rice is going to be a decent player, but not a great one.
