Staring Down the Barrel of the Championship, Part Two: Starting the Rebuild — the Foundations
Now that we’ve assessed the barren wasteland that is likely to be West Ham’s squad after relegation, it’s time to have a go at picking some players to rebuild the club.
The worst thing we can do after being relegated is simply chuck money at the problem and sign players like Dwight Gayle, Lewis Grabban, and Thomas Ince — guys who will help propel the club out of the Championship but won’t be good enough to play a part in the Premier League in the future. Likewise, we don’t want to be over-reliant on loans. Basically we don’t want to end up like Aston Villa, where they spent a fortune in wages on experienced, established Championship names and Premier League loanees during their promotion season and then had to build an entirely new squad the summer after their play-off final win.
We don’t need to be bringing in experienced journeymen as the players we’ll be unable to sell from our current squad will most likely be the older heads anyway. The sweet spot is identifying and acquiring young talent with a high ceiling for growth that we can develop at the club both in the Championship and in the first few seasons back in the top flight. Easier said than done, though.
A few caveats to this little exercise.
Smart clubs identify a style of football they want to play, recruit players who suit that style of play, and appoint a manager who can coach that style of play. Of course, that requires people behind the scenes with proper footballing vision, something sorely absent at West Ham.
As such, it’s impossible to tailor these recruitment suggestions to a specific style. We don’t even know who the manager will be so it’s difficult to even second guess this. When we go down, I sincerely hope we don’t persist with David Moyes — it would be excruciating watching him try to build a proactive side that can dominate games and get promoted. So, lacking that sort of guidance, I’ve instead picked players I like, who I think have a lot of potential, and have the versatility to play a variety of different tactical styles and shapes.
I’ve also mostly limited this to domestic-based players, for the following reasons:
- the club desperately needs some home-grown players to meet Premier League squad limits in the future, especially if Bowen, Rice, and Antonio are off.
- it’s much more difficult to ascertain whether players from abroad would be willing to play in the second tier of English football and whether the allure of living in London/the wages we can afford to pay will allow us to compete with lower end Prem teams/midtable European teams for the sort of players I’d pick out.
- data for the leagues that we should be looking to pick up players from (Ligue 2, the various Scandinavian leagues, Croatia) aren’t readily available on any of the free online resources. Basically I can’t afford a Wyscout subscription, so this’ll have to suffice.
Without further ado, let’s go position-by-position again.
(all numbers are per 90 and from WhoScored. I’ve filtered out any players who’ve made fewer than 10 appearances this season at the time of writing)
GK
No incomings required here, so the only issue to resolve is where to send Nathan Trott out on loan. If he’s happy and settled, and the club are interested, I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping him at AFC Wimbledon for another year.
Ideally though you’d want him to kick on and test himself at a higher level, so Swansea seems like a good fit to me.
They’ve seemingly built a recruitment model around signing and developing elite Premier League academy talent on loan. A big selling point for them is head coach Steve Cooper, who managed England’s under-17 side during their World Cup winning campaign in 2017. Swansea’s current goalkeeper, Freddie Woodman, is only on loan at the club, so it’s likely they’ll be looking for a replacement for next year. That said, Woodman is available on a free in the summer but if they can’t get him, and they don’t feel like Steven Benda (having an excellent season on loan at Swindon) is ready for first team football, the Welsh side could be the ideal destination for Trott.
FB
Again, not an enormous amount of work needs to be done here as we’re putting our faith in Johnson/Ngakia. If the club do decide they want to spend on a right-back, then Jayden Bogle (20) is the outstanding attainable choice. After a breakout season with Frank Lampard’s Derby County ™, this year’s been a bit disjointed thanks to injury and his stock is therefore a little lower than it was 12 months ago.
Although he’s still filling out, Bogle has the frame to handle the physicality of Premier League football. His 3.6 attempted dribbles (2nd among full-backs) and 2.3 successful (1st) shows an improvement in his ball carrying from last year, where he was putting up 2.5 attempted and 1.4 successful dribbles (3rd and 4th respectively).
His other metrics have dropped slightly, although that’s perhaps a stylistic point: last season’s 3.5 attempted tackles, 2.7 successful (both 3rd highest) were perhaps a reflection of a more front-foot pressing style under Lampard compared to Cocu. Bogle’s 1.2 key passes last season (3rd) show what he’s capable of going forward. It also helps when you’re able to score goals like this and strike the ball like this:
With a contract that runs until 2022, this summer might be the last chance for Derby to get a big fee for Bogle. The looming threat of EFL sanctions after some accounting shenanigans might force Derby into a position where they need to sell and shave a few quid off their asking price.
The other, potentially more exciting option would be Perry Ng (23) from Crewe. He already plays for a side who are comfortable building out from the back — Crewe’s 55.8% average possession is the highest in League Two, as is their 77% pass completion — which should make a step up in standard an easier process for Ng.
The young right-back is an integral part of the way his side move the ball out of defence: Ng passes the ball more than any other full-back in the league (55.6 per 90) and both attempts (2.2) and completes (1.7) more dribbles than any other full-back in the league.
He’s no slouch out of possession either, weighing in with 2.6 attempted tackles and 1.9 completed tackles (both 13th) and 1.1 interceptions (10th)— impressive numbers playing for a side who dominate the ball to the extent that Crewe do.
Ng was Crewe’s Player of the Year and Players’ Player of the Year for 2018–19 and has been their captain this season at just 23. In an interview discussing potential captain candidates this summer, manager David Artell said of Ng:
He is not a particularly vocal leader. He more leads by example and he has developed into a leader. He is influential by being effective and he encourages those around him.
That resonates with me; we’ve had enough screamers and shouters over the years at West Ham and it’s not got us very far. We could do with a calming, assured presence at the back. As both a footballer and a person, Perry Ng seems like someone capable of making the step up.
I won’t dwell on LB options too much, as I don’t think we’ll be able to shift both Cresswell and Masuaku. If we do decide to pursue a senior player here and want someone a bit more defensively robust, we could do a lot worse than Kristian Pedersen (25).
Similarly to Derby, Birmingham City are potentially in a bit of a financial pickle and might be willing to part with players for reasonable fees in the near future.
Pedersen’s 2.8 completed tackles is 6th amongst full-backs and he only attempts 3.6 per 90, highlighting his efficiency at winning the ball back. His 1.5 interceptions are a healthy 11th highest and Pedersen attempts (6.7) and wins (4.5) far more aerial duels than any FB in the league (bar Andrew Hughes of Preston, who has played half the minutes of Pedersen). The Dane is the highest scoring FB in the league with 3 goals, 2 of those coming from set pieces and all 3 coming from within the 6-yard box. He takes a shot from a set piece every other game (0.5 per 90), which showcases his threat from corners and free-kicks.
Another potential shout could be Omar Richards (21). He’s defensively active (3.3 successful tackles (2nd) from 4 attempted and 1.4 interceptions (15th)) and a busy, but inefficient ball carrier (1.6 total dribbles (6th) but only 0.7 successful). He’s primarily played as a left wing-back for Reading this season and his positioning higher up the pitch is reflected in his 1.2 key passes per 90 (6th).
CB
Lord, where to start with this.
West Ham have desperately needed:
A) a deep-lying central midfielder
B) a central defender who can pass the ball
or
C)both
for almost a decade at this point. Literally anyone who plays in the defensive third and can progress the ball would do.
The perfect target for this role would be Brighton’s Ben White (22), who is currently on loan at Leeds:
White’s brilliantly composed, used to playing in a high line and aggressive pressing system under Bielsa, and capable of dribbling the ball out from the back. Unfortunately, signing him would be contingent on 1) Leeds not getting promoted and bringing him in permanently and 2) Brighton giving White first team minutes next season as they phase out Shane Duffy. Given the money that Brighton themselves paid for Adam Webster last summer, even if Ben White is available, we’re probably looking at upwards of £20mil for him.
Given that, my first choice would be Nathan Ferguson (19):
Ferguson’s a CB by trade, but has split his time evenly between LB and RB as he’s broken into the WBA first team this season. As you can see from the radar, he’s an excellent dribbler, competent in the air and a solid enough passer. His ability to cover both FB positions is part of the reason why he’d be my number one target, as it would free up money to be spent elsewhere, but I think re-purposing his ability to carry the ball past opponents as a central defender would be a smart move; as more teams seek to put pressure on opposition defenders high up the pitch, the ability to bypass a press by dribbling becomes an increasingly useful skill to have as a CB.
The other major plus to Nathan Ferguson is that he’s out of contract this summer. He was part of a slightly odd situation this January where Crystal Palace agreed a fee to sign him permanently from West Brom, only for the Premier League club to back out and try to renegotiate the terms of the deal after they received the results of Ferguson’s medical. The sticking point was supposedly an underlying knee injury that Palace’s staff thought required surgery and therefore felt they should pay a smaller fee for a player who wouldn’t be available immediately. West Brom’s evaluation of the injury differed — Ferguson had been playing through it with no obvious ill effects, after all — and the deal fell through.
Obviously we need to be a bit careful, given West Ham’s history with injury prone players, but Ferguson now seems determined to leave at the end of his contract in June and we should try to take advantage of that. As he’s under 24 and WBA have tried to offer him terms, any club who signs him will have to pay a fee decided by tribunal but that’s likely to be significantly lower than the fee he’d command in normal circumstances.
At the sort of money that’ll be involved in a tribunal process, competition for Ferguson will likely be fierce though and plenty of Premier League clubs will surely be in the mix, so we’d probably be looking at offering him a small fortune in wages to be an appealing option.
Looking elsewhere, it’s tough to find any outstanding candidates. Monitoring Lewis Gibson’s (19) loan at Fleetwood from Everton for the rest of the season could be a smart play. He’s left-footed and has a strong reputation from his PL2 performances this season. Trying to pick him up over the summer could be a good temporary solution.
A slightly rogue option could be another member of that under-17 World Cup winning squad, Jonathan Panzo (19). A left-footed CB who can also cover at LB, Panzo’s yet another one off the Cobham production line who has sought first team opportunities away from Stamford Bridge.
Signed in July 2018 from Chelsea at the age of 17, Panzo’s had a strange time of it so far at Monaco. He made his Ligue 1 debut starting in the first game of the 19/20 season in a 3–0 loss to Lyon and then was shipped out on loan to Cercle Brugge in Belgium two weeks later, where he’s started 16 times, mostly at left-back. Panzo’s also played a handful of times for the England under-21s this year and his Monaco contract expires in 2021.
He’s not the tallest player in the world, but he’s agile and has quick feet, so it makes sense that he’s predominantly been used at full-back in the early stages of his career. Given his ease in possession and recovery pace, I’d like to see him play at CB more as he develops physically.
It’s tough to know how realistic signing him would be. Monaco are unlikely to sanction another loan with only a year left on his contract, but perhaps a move back to London on a permanent basis could be tempting. It all depends on whether Monaco intend on using him as a first team player next year or not.
