Shallow Stats Scouting: Summer 2018 Part 1
Almost every year it seems like there’s one Premier League signing who retrospectively looks like a no-brainer when the player’s previous statistical output is considered.
Invariably they tend to be attacking/creative players and this year’s unequivocal bargain was Pascal Groß. The £3m that Brighton paid for the German midfielder was a steal but his performance should have come as little surprise considering he played more key passes (98 in 33 games) than any other player in the Bundesliga in 2016/17, an especially impressive total considering he was playing in a poor Ingolstadt side.
Dimitri Payet contributed one of the greatest individual seasons in Premier League history during 2015/16, and the £11.4m transfer fee West Ham paid for him was heralded as a bit of a masterstroke. It’s not as if Payet was some great unearthed mystery prior to that though, as he’d clocked up the highest number of assists in Ligue 1 (16) in the previous season for Marseille.
So who is it going to be in 2018/19? Here’s a brief look across Europe’s best leagues at some players who aren’t household names, but who stand out after a cursory glimpse at some basic metrics (all data from WhoScored and Understat, minimum of 1000 mins played):
Bundesliga:
Niclas Füllkrug, 25, Hannover 96:
Hannover finished the season in 13th, 6 points above the relegation playoff place, and things could have been worse for them were it not for the efforts of Niclas Füllkrug, whose 14 goals (including 3 pens) saw him finish as the joint-3rd top scorer in the Bundesliga. As a mobile, physically imposing forward, Niclas Füllkrug amassed the 6th highest xG total in the league (11.42) while also demonstrating his aerial prowess with the 2nd highest number of headed shots this season (28). He took roughly the same number of shots with his right foot (33) as his left (26), so he provides an ambipedal threat and he’s capable of taking direct free-kicks, too.
He’d be a good fit for Newcastle, West Ham, Brighton, or any club who is looking to avoid paying over the odds for Salomón Rondón or Nicolai Jørgensen.
Nils Petersen, 29, SC Freiburg:
Another Bundesliga relegation candidate, another high-scoring target man. Whereas Füllkrug is someone to run the channels and press, Petersen is a more conventional centre forward who excels within the confines of the penalty area. Given German football’s reputation for being tactically progressive, it’s initially quite odd to see this profile of striker thriving this season. However, perhaps it shouldn’t be, as the prevalence of aggressive pressing in the league makes a big outlet for a long pass a viable strategy for under pressure defenders.
Petersen’s 15 goals (5 pens) were good enough for 2nd place for Die Torjägerkanone and his xG of 11.81 was the highest of any bottom half Bundesliga club and 5th overall. That was enough to see him named in Germany’s provisional World Cup squad ahead of adult toddler Sandro Wagner. Petersen is approaching the tail end of his prime, but he’d suit Burnley, Cardiff, or any club looking for a plan B.
Miloš Jojić, 26, FC Köln:
Jojić is a curious player and is probably the most direct analogue to Pascal Groß on this list. FC Köln finished bottom of the Bundesliga and yet Jojić registered 5.96 xA, the 8th highest overall and the most of any bottom half player, despite only playing ~1400 mins across 25 games (roughly a 1000 mins less than the rest of the top 10, barring James Rodríguez and Thomas Müller).
A chunk of that total comes from his set piece delivery, which obviously has value, but he’s a versatile midfielder capable of operating as a number 10 as well as cutting in from either wing or distributing from deeper in midfield. Like Groß, he’s a bit one dimensional in terms of pace, but his quick feet allow him to navigate through tight spaces with his dribbling. With David Wagner’s propensity for signing players from his native Germany, and Huddersfield’s creative struggles this year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rock up in Yorkshire sometime in the near future.
Thorgan Hazard, 25, Borussia Mönchengladbach:
Eden’s younger brother had a standout season in a Gladbach side that struggled for fluency at times and the Belgian winger is starting to look like the real deal. He ended the season with 10 goals/ 5 assists, the 3rd highest xG total (14.30), and his xGper90 of 0.44 was 10th best in the league — all the more impressive considering considering all of the players above him play as traditional centre forwards, while Hazard predominantly plays out wide. He chalked up the joint-4th highest total shots (87), the 6th highest shots on target (33), the 5th highest total dribbles (120) and 3rd most key passes (64) in the Bundesliga in 2017/18.
It’s easy to get lost in the weeds with all of that, but Hazard is essentially a hugely talented all-round winger who is equally adept at providing a direct goal threat with his shooting, acting as a wide creator, or helping his team move up the pitch into dangerous areas through his ball progression. He might lack the electric change of pace that his brother possesses, but that doesn’t diminish his own ability and his performances have been noteworthy in their own right. These numbers are partly down to his status as Gladbach’s primary creative outlet, meaning he sees a lot of the ball, but the ability to carry a team’s attack like that is impressive in itself.
Riyad Mahrez looks increasingly likely to join City and, although Thorgan primarily likes to play on the opposite flank, he could certainly replace a decent chunk of the Algerian’s output and goal threat. He’d also be a good option for Palace, if they want to ease the burden placed on Wilf Zaha, or for Arsenal, who look like they could use a more conventional winger to help them carve out chances. He’s probably even done enough to warrant a move back to Chelsea; even though he likes to play in the same space as his brother, it’d be nice to see them playing together.
Serie A:
Kevin Lasagna, 25, Udinese:
The sensationally named Kevin Lasagna had a quietly eye-catching goalscoring season for a Udinese who collapsed so spectacularly in the second half of the season that they needed a win on the final day to secure their top flight status. Lasagna is in a similar mould to Füllkrug in that he’s a strong, industrious striker who can cause defenders problems with his surging runs in behind to latch onto through balls. There’s not a tremendous amount of finesse to Lasagna’s game; he likes to bludgeon his shots with his favoured left foot rather than place them and there’s something slightly reminiscent of Lukas Podolski in the way that he plays.
He had the 10th highest xG in Serie A with 12.9 (he scored 12 goals) and the 7th best xGper90 (0.54). Lasagna scored ~17% of the shots he took and scored ~39% of his shots on target. Neither of those figures are outrageously high, making his performance this season seem sustainable, an idea that’s backed up by Lasagna’s shot map:
This looks very healthy, with the majority of his shots coming from within the frame of the goal and a good quantity inside the 6-yard box. He could do with trimming out some of the shots from the edge of the box when he’s slightly wider but there’s plenty to suggest that he can perform consistently at the level he has this season. He’s an interesting option who would be available at an affordable price.
Remo Freuler, 26, Atalanta:
All of the players I’ve listed up until this point have been either strikers or creative midfielders, mostly because it’s easier to spot these sorts of players through event data as their actions in the final third require interaction with the ball and are therefore easier to quantify. Remo Freuler is a bit different.
He plays as a central midfielder for Atalanta, and as such has little influence in the final third, but he scores well on Understat’s xGChain metric, which is the total xG of every possession an individual player is involved in. So Freuler’s score of 18.18 suggests that the passages of Atalanta’s possession that he’s involved in have resulted in chances that you’d expect an average team to have scored roughly 18 goals from; it’s a way of giving credit to a player whose passing helps their team move into dangerous areas, even if they’re not the one playing the pass before the shot. It helps flag up that Freuler is a progressive passer of the ball from deeper areas.
Couple that passing with his tackling (5th highest attempted tackles (144), 7th highest number of successful tackles (89), and you’ve got a player who looks like he can be effective both in and out of possession. Atalanta qualified for the Europa League by finishing 7th, so he could prove difficult to prise away, but Everton have been crying out for this sort of distributor to play alongside either Gueye or Schneiderlin and he seems like he could be a good replacement for Yoann Cabaye at Palace if they decide to not renew his contract. If Burnley want to replace Steven Defour, Freuler’s off the ball work could be enough to tempt Dyche into a bid.
Rodrigo de Paul, 24, Udinese:
Another Udinese player who had a solid individual season despite his team’s collective woes. Rodrigo is an elegant dribbler and an astute playmaker who can play either as a number 10 or from the right wing. He managed the 8th best xA in Serie A(7.98), and he also rates well for progressive passes + dribbles across Europe’s top 5 leagues:
(Caley’s stat “finds passes and runs that progress the ball 10–15 yards beyond where it had reached so far in the attacking move, or into the penalty area.”)
Rodrigo de Paul progressed the ball with his passing and dribbling this season at a greater rate than Naby Keïta, Jorginho, Thomas Lemar, and Malcom, all of whom have been rumoured to move for £50m+ over the last few transfer windows. Rodrigo’s passing alone progressed the ball up the pitch more regularly than Sergej Milinković-Savić, who is allegedly going to cost United £100m if they want to sign him from Lazio.
Clearly each of those players have other attributes that make them so coveted, but based on the ability to consistently get the ball into more dangerous areas, Rodrigo de Paul is potentially a bit of an outlier and attainable for a much cheaper price than the names he’s listed alongside. The downside is that his xA this season is roughly double his other two full seasons in Europe, so it’s possible that he just had a hot year in 2017/18. He also takes a lot of low percentage shots from terrible areas:
He’s still young enough to have some shot discipline coached into him, though, and there are plenty of clubs who are desperate for some creativity (Leicester, West Ham, Southampton) who should be scouting him extremely closely to determine whether he can repeat his performance this season on a more regular basis.
