Ones to watch: Norway at Euro 2020
This is a fairly easy point to make considering they have a striker who does this sort of thing:
But this is more than just about Erling Braut Håland.
He is undeniably brilliant and any team with a striker as potent as he is has a fighting chance of being competitive in a tournament situation.
There’s more to this Norway side than their superstar centre forward, though.
Attack
For one, they have a ready made replacement for him in the squad in case of emergency. Alexander Sørloth is a sort of Lidl version of Håland — another mobile, gargantuan, left-footed striker, although perhaps without as much explosive pace as his younger compatriot.
Out of favour at Crystal Palace for whatever reason, Sørloth’s having himself a season out on loan in Turkey for Trabzonspor, with 19 goals + 5 assists in his 22 starts in the Süper Lig.
I’m not sure how reliable this source is, but they reckon that Trabzonspor have him on a two-year loan with no recall available and the option to purchase him at any point for £7mil. Seems like Palace might’ve fucked up there.
Supplementing their central forwards, Norway can call on the likes of Joshua King and Moi Elyounoussi to flank Sørloth or Håland. Regular watchers of the Premier League will be familiar with what King offers: incisive pace and the versatility to function through the middle or out wide. Although, like a lot of Bournemouth players, he’s currently having a bit of a down season, his goalscoring record in the league and for his national team (17 in 46 caps) has been respectable in recent years.
Elyounoussi, meanwhile, has struggled to establish a foothold in England after moving to Southampton. Seemingly unfavoured by Hasenhüttl, Elyounoussi has been shipped out to Celtic on loan this year. He’s not yet managed to cement his place in the first, making just 17 appearances and playing just over 1000 minutes across all competitions, but he’s been productive when he has played, with 7 goals + 6 assists. Rediscovering the form he demonstrated at Basel will be key for him, but his dribbling ability and creativity from out wide provides his national team with balance in attack and a variety of different weapons going forward.
Moi’s elder cousin Tarik has been a fixture in Norway squads in the recent past, with 60 caps and 10 goals to his name. Now plying his trade in Japan, Tarik seems to have been relegated to a rotation role off the bench at this point in his career.
Unsurprisingly for a side coached by Lars Lagerbäck, Norway almost exclusively played 4–4–2 in qualifying, using Joshua King as a central striker and instead operating with wide midfielders as part of the 4 rather than out-and-out wingers.
Usually, these spots were occupied by Iver Fossum, Ole Selnæs, or one-time Cardiff City player Mats Møller Dæhli. Whether these players are continued to be favoured by Lagerbäck going forward is up in the air, but it seems likely that he’ll favour a combination of robust players like Fossum and playmakers like Dæhli over wingers like Moi or Tarik Elyounoussi in wide areas for the time being at least.
Midfield
Supplying those forwards is another out of favour player enjoying a breakout season on loan. Martin Ødegaard, the boy who launched a thousand YouTube compilations, is tearing things up for Real Sociedad this year, showcasing his line-breaking, defender-abusing passing range week-in, week-out; Ødegaard’s 2.4 key passes per 90 is bettered only by Santi Cazorla, Lionel Messi, and Toni Kroos in La Liga.
It’s easy to forget that Ødegaard is still just 21 years old given he’s already been through the wonderkid hype to expensive flop cycle at least once already after his move to Real Madrid at the tender age of 15 years old. He’s been so good for Sociedad this year that there’s talk of him being utilised in the first team for Real Madrid after his loan deal expires in the summer, as Real seek a change in strategy, bringing their loanees like Ødegaard and Achraf Hakimi back into the first team fold to enable the club to fund an ultra-expensive signing like Kylian Mbappé.
After the Euros, that might prove to be a masterstroke, given he’ll be creative fulcrum for this Norway team, providing ammunition for footballing gattling gun, Erling Håland.
But having a balanced and threatening attack is pointless if you don’t have someone to get the ball up the pitch to them and have the defensive structure to back it all up.
Luckily for Norway, they can slot recent Sheffield United signing, Sander Berge, into one of the midfield roles. Berge is another physically impressive player but one who couples that physicality with a multi-faceted skillset.
Ball progression is the name of the game with Berge, and he offers it with both his passing and his dribbling:
On top of that, he’s a combative presence who’s more than willing to press high up the pitch and he has the stature to make life difficult for the player in possession:
A natural fit in alongside Berge in central midfield seems to be Morten Thorsby of Sampdoria. Thorsby only moved to Italy from Heerenveen last summer and has been eased into life in Serie A, failing to break into the first team until November.
But since then he’s been a regular fixture in the side and has been putting up monstrous defensive numbers — his 3.1 completed tackles per 90 leave him tied for 6th highest of all players in Serie A with Samp team-mate Karol Linetty (although 2 players above him, Marco Parolo and Danilo Cataldi, have played 669 and 338 mins respectively). Thorsby attempted 4.6 tackles per 90, so completes around 2/3rds of them.
Between Thorsby and Berge, Norway have a combative and physically imposing double pivot they can rely on to win the ball back and progress it up the pitch for their forwards to do the damage.
Thorsby’s recent emergence has meant that he’s only picked up a single cap for his country so far. In qualifying, Berge was generally partnered in central midfield with either Markus Henriksen or Stefan Johansen, energetic all-rounders who provide a box-to-box presence and genuine goal threat, although both of those players haven’t been regular starters for their teams in the Championship this season.
Defence
Behind them, the defence is maybe the one area of the squad that’s a little weaker. They’ve still got the languid Kristoffer Ajer who can operate at CB or in midfield if needs be. With a grace that belies his 6'6" frame, Ajer is composed in possession and is comfortable using his long stride to carry the ball out of defence to drive his team up the pitch. There are some question marks about his agility given his size, but he’s a competent modern defender who enables his side to build out from the back.
Throughout qualifying, Ajer was generally paired with Tore Reginiussen, a 33-year old who has played almost his entire career domestically in Norway. Reginiussen scored against the Faroe Islands and captained his country in their last game against Malta, and generally provides an experienced head next to the more youthful Ajer. Norway’s options here are a bit limited, with Jannik Vestergaard falling out of contention at Southampton and Even Hovland another regular member of the squad who has predominantly played his club football in his home nation.
At full-back, things are a little stronger. There’s a bit of a crunch at RB as the diminutive national captain Omar Elabdellaoui is being pressed hard for his slot by the dynamic Jonas Svensson of AZ Alkmaar. Svensson offers a different sort of threat going forward, as shown by his 1.5 key passes per game, 3rd highest rate amongst full-back in the Eredivisie this season. Only 0.2 of those are crosses, so he’s not someone who aimlessly flings balls into the box either, selectively choosing his passes in the final third to carve out chances for his team.
The LB slot is sewn up by Haitam Aleesami, who plays for relegation-threatened Amiens in Ligue 1. Aleesami is another who provides support in attacking moves — 0.7 key passes per game is 17th amongst FBs in France’s top division — and is relatively solid defensively, with 1.9 completed tackles out of 3 attempts per 90 mins. Aleesami’s particularly strong in the air though (1.9 aerial duels won per 90 is 6th highest amongst FBs), further highlighting the sort of threat Norway are going to pose from set pieces in the future.
The man between the sticks will almost certainly be Rune Jarstein. The 35-year old has racked up 65 caps for Norway and is the most experienced international player in the squad. There are some signs in the numbers that Jarstein is perhaps on the decline slightly — StatsBomb’s post-shot xG numbers have Jarstein performing a touch below the rate expected of the average goalkeeper based on the post-shot xG value of the shots he faces per 90, reflected in his ranking of 11th amongst Bundesliga goalkeepers.
The problem Norway have is that there isn’t a clear successor in-line to replace him if Jarstein does start to fade away. Number 2 has generally been Ørjan Nyland, who can barely get a game for Aston Villa.
Of course, Norway still need to reach Euro 2020 before they can think about causing serious damage. They face a tough fixture against Serbia but, should they win that, they should get past the winner of Scotland/Israel and qualify for the tournament proper. If they manage that, they’d be placed into a group with England, Croatia, and the Czech Republic — all beatable teams.
(Norway finished third in their Euro 2020 qualifying group behind Spain and Sweden but secured a place in the play-off by virtue of winning their Nations League group ahead of Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Slovenia.)
Their failure to qualify outright might seem like it would undermine their chances, but the big issue for Norway is that a lot of their talent has broken through in the last 6 months or so, meaning they were unable to play a significant role in the qualifying campaign. You can see that in the number of caps some of the players have got so far: Thorsby has 1, Håland has 2, Ajer has 14, Berge has 20, Ødegaard and Sørloth have 22. This is an inexperienced group of players. With a bit more time, they could grow into something special.
Both Norway and Lars Lagerbäck have traditionally been unafraid of playing a direct style of football and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t continue. They have the presence upfront to contest aerial challenges and the pace surrounding them to be an effective counter-attacking team. But they have the personnel to press aggressively high up the pitch if they want or can defend more passively in a deeper block. Their options in midfield and the inclusion of Ajer at CB give them variety as well, allowing them to play a more patient passing game at times, adding different dimensions to their game. This is a squad with range and quality and a difference maker at the sharp end of the pitch.
They’re gonna be a threat at Euro 2020 and beyond.
