Manchester United vs West Ham Tactical Preview — 22/07/2020
With two games to go, it’s job done, safety secured, Championship dodged for another season. There’s not much to play for from a West Ham perspective, so this might be a game where the flipflops come out after the pressure of the last few fixtures. Unless, that is, we want to be spiteful and hinder Manchester United’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League. They need a win here to capitalise on Leicester’s recent faltering, so they’ll surely be coming in all guns blazing at Old Trafford.
Team Shape
I’m going to ignore the mess they made of the FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea on Sunday where they reverted to the 3–4–3 shape that yielded results in matches where they had a minority of the ball (beat Chelsea and City, got a point off Liverpool). They’re not going to play that system against us in a match where they expect to dominate possession.
Earlier in the season, they lost games vs Burnley (30%) Palace (30%), Newcastle (32%), Watford (38%), Bournemouth (43%) where their opponents surrendered the ball to them, which might influence Moyes’ thinking here. However, the introduction of Bruno Fernandes has changed things a bit and leaves them better equipped to break down low blocks, so that’s not necessarily the best way to play against them any more.
While a lot of 4–2–3–1s end up being indistinguishable from 4–4–2 in practice, I think Solskjaer’s 4–2–3–1 is one of the few that actually adheres to that shape:
For what appears to be a relatively simple system, there’s a lot to pick out here.
The most obvious point is Bruno Fernandes (18), who has received all of the acclaim for their post-lockdown resurgence: sitting slap bang in the middle of the pitch, just the other side of the centre circle in the opposition half. Classic #10 territory.
But while Fernandes has been credited with the change in fortunes, the (re)introduction of two other players has had an equally large impact on the side: Nemanja Matić and Luke Shaw.
Shaw (23) offers a balance that has been lacking when they’ve shoehorned a right-footed full-back into that slot (they struggled a bit against Palace when Fosu-Mensah played at LB and had Ashley Young and Brandon Williams playing that role earlier in the season). It also makes them less easy to press — a wrong-footed FB is usually going to want to come inside which lets you trap them with supporting players.
Having someone who retains his width high up the pitch and offers a threat down the outside has been a game changer for this United team; Shaw’s positioning stretches back fours and forces the opposition RB to press out to the touchline, opening up the space in the channel between RB/CB that both Rashford and Martial like to exploit (see the leftward positioning of Martial’s touches in the average position maps).
If opposition defences want to retain their spacing, the whole backline has to shift over to defend that side, which opens up space on the opposite flank for Manchester United’s RW and RB (Greenwood/Wan-Bissaka in these games) who hold their position a little wider to receive that switch. That is a relatively recent development as this team switches play for more regularly when Pogba/Fernandes are in it:
The biggest difference Shaw makes is to Rashford, who can move inside freely knowing his team have that left wing covered and his uptick in form has coincided with Shaw’s inclusion.
Matić, meanwhile, sits and screens the defence, liberating Pogba to roam around to get on the ball and link up with the front four. He’s a steady hand doing a simple job well without the ball, despite his age and physical limitations. But the real key to his inclusion is the role he plays in possession.
Build-up Play
Generally speaking, Manchester United like to play down their left-hand side:
You can get an idea of how this works with Matić’s positioning against both Villa and Southampton: much deeper and further left than Pogba, practically playing in the same zone as Harry Maguire:
And that’s because, once they’re up to the half-way line in established possession, Matić drops in to make a 3rd central defender. Having a midfielder move into the backline to help build-up play as an auxiliary CB is nothing new, but when that happens the two CBs usually split, whereas with Matić, Maguire often tucks into the middle and he fills in on the left-side:
The effect is two-fold:
- It allows Man United’s FBs to push really high up the pitch early on, which in turn allows their front 4 to play narrowly. Matić is particularly helpful as he’s covering Shaw’s space, facilitating the left wing dynamic that suits Rashford and Martial.
- It gives greater passing balance to the side as they work their way out of the back. Maguire plays as the left-sided CB despite being right-footed, which limits his forward passing options if he wants to avoid using his weaker foot. Having a natural left-footer on that side of defence creates more passing angles for Manchester United’s backline, especially into central midfield. Most sides defend in a 4–4–2 shape, regardless of their formation, so having the extra CB helps as it gives the opposition front 2 more ground to cover if they want to press the ball. As a result, that generally opens up access to Pogba in deep central areas (although Villa cut off that pass by sticking with a 3-man first line of defence and Southampton made that pass difficult by either narrowing their front 2 or shifting the 2 CMs to the ball side to restrict space).
Against Palace, neither Shaw nor Matić started the game and that lead to Manchester United being far more disjointed with the ball.
Harry Maguire’s (5) position is further up the pitch than usual because he was the one to become the LCB in their 3 (Matić’s replacement, Scott McTominay, has a much more central position because he filled into the middle of that defensive 3) and the one to take on the ball progression duties out of defence. Without that left-footed passing option out from the back, United struggled.
If you look at Manchester United’s passes into the final 3rd on fbref.com, Maguire has the greatest volume and is clearly the one who has been moving the ball forward for the bulk of the season, but when we look at per 90 numbers, it’s clear Matić and Pogba have taken over that responsibility:
In deeper positions, like goal-kicks, Manchester United’s build-up play is all about getting a pass into Paul Pogba with him facing forward to let him drive with the ball and get it quickly to his pacey front line.
They achieve this by either getting the CBs to split, drawing the opposition wide, so De Gea can play the pass straight into Pogba on the turn or by working the ball out to AWB so he can pass it square inside to an already front-facing Pogba.
These Between The Posts passmaps from the Southampton and Brighton matches shows up that dynamic:
Both highlight the heavy focus on passing down the left flank. On the opposite side, AWB’s passes are all inside to Pogba, who distributes it forward and across the pitch.
A couple of goals from the Southampton game demonstrate how they play out from the back:
Southampton’s opener shows that you can get at this Manchester United side if you’re aggressive with your pressing when they try to go straight into Pogba…
…while United’s 2nd goal shows the dangers of over-committing to that approach if they adjust their strategy— United have the players to hurt you if they breach your first line of defence.
That goal is the perfect encapsulation of what this side’s approach is designed to do — create counter attacking situations in possession, rather than after turnovers. Although they are more than happy to play on the break in a traditional counter attacking style, always looking for a long pass down the left:
Moyes has some decisions on his hands for how to set us up without the ball. Luke Shaw is injured for the game, leaving either Tim Fosu-Mensah or Brandon Williams as the option at LB. That means we can probably afford to have Jarrod Bowen push on to close down Matić when he’s acting as the 3rd CB, if we want to avoid defending in a 4–4–2 as we have done lately. I’m not sure Noble is the player best equipped to deal with Pogba, so I’d be inclined to pick Fornals in that role, who did a good job there shadowing and cutting off access to Kanté when he played as a #6 for Chelsea.
Without Possession
Solskjaer’s United aren’t exclusively a high pressing team; they’re not going to squeeze the life out of your central defenders when they’re on the ball because that doesn’t suit the type of forwards they have.
They’re mid-table for completed tackles and pressures in the final third:
Contrast United’s individual numbers with Watford, who are much more defensively proactive in the attacking and middle thirds:
Lingard’s got through a massive amount of defensive work when he’s played, but if you look at the recent regular front fours for both sides — Rashford/Martial/Greenwood/Fernandes vs Welbeck/Deeney/Sarr/Doucouré — the Manchester United players are pressing about half as often in the attacking and middle 3rds as the Watford players. That’s perhaps to be expected, as Manchester United have the 5th highest average possession in the league (54.6%), but on a team level, the other possession-heavy teams (Leicester, Man City, Liverpool) clock up more pressures and tackles at the top end of the pitch.
Their frontline is happy to sit off and draw their opponents forward as they shuttle the ball across defence, while the back 4 push up to compress the space between themselves and Pogba/Matić, giving them the numbers to win the ball back in central areas in their own half. Again, this is all about generating space and counter attacking opportunities for Rashford/Martial/Greenwood.
When they do decide to be more proactive about regaining possession, the forwards stand off and they leave their full-backs to press their opponents wide players. Although he’s mostly doing it in his own defensive 3rd, Aaron Wan-Bissaka is dominating the league’s tackling metrics, along with our own Declan Rice:
Attacking Movement
Bruno Fernandes is currently throwing in a whopping 3.38 shots per 90. Rashford (2.95), Martial (2.76), Greenwood (2.65) are all contributing over 2.5 per 90 — those 4 players average almost 12 shots per game; our whole team averages 11.
Rashford and Martial are putting up 0.14 and 0.13 non-pen xG per shot which is quite tasty; Fernandes is on 0.07, so his shots are, on average, half as likely to go in as the other two. Fernandes is a high risk, high reward player in everything he does but he’s occasionally going to have days where none of his speculative shots or passes come off for him.
Luckily for United, they’ve been finishing their chances insanely well lately and running hotter than their xG would anticipate. We’re going to have to hope they’re having an off night if we can’t suppress their shooting.
Although their main weapons are in transition, Solskjaer’s team have a few tools they utilise against deeper defences.
As the heat maps suggest, they like to overload the left side of the pitch during attacking phases of the game. You quite often get situations like this…
…where you have Shaw, Rashford, Martial, and Fernandes crowded into the left channel, with Pogba in close proximity on that side to recycle possession.
In that pic, Rashford and Fernandes are in probably the opposite positions you’d expect from them, with the left winger practically in the box and the centre forward deeper, but that highlights the fluidity of those two. Their link-up play is vital to this Manchester United team going forward and often feels like it’s improvised, but the improved structure behind them grants them the freedom to flourish. Rashford’s taken on more creative burden in this position on the left — his 62 passes into penalty area are joint-8th best in league, the highest on his team (next best is Martial and James on 32 and 29).
Although Fernandes feels like a classic creative number 10, he’s the one who helps these overloads happen by floating to each side of the pitch. A lot of the time he’ll drift over to support, dragging an opposition CB wide with him, and then peels around to sprint into the box. It’s basic but effective and that movement tests the communication between, and organisation of, their opponent’s defensive players.
They like taking shots from range from that side of the pitch, especially Martial. Getting out to block them will be crucial.
Shaw being out is a plus as it curtails United’s threat down the outside, so it’ll be interesting to see how much they continue with this focus down their left. If they do, the right side of our team might struggle.
I’m not sure if Fredericks is back, so Ben Johnson could have his work cut out for him. He’s handled everything that’s been thrown at him well so far, so deserves to keep his spot. Despite his qualities going forward, Souček’s lack of agility could result in a difficult night for him up against the interchange of players down his side. Bowen’s been diligent in his defensive work and his support will be important to add a bit of mobility to help out Souček and Johnson if he’s starting. Martial is surprisingly adept with his back to goal for someone who doesn’t have a reputation for it, so how Diop chooses to engage with him will affect how much influence Martial has on the game.
Defensive Frailties
Few quick points:
Victor Lindelöf wins 65% of his aerial duels, which isn’t amazing. He plays on the right side of their CBs and Souček has had some joy attacking the far post area that Lindelöf plays in when we cross it in from our right (goal against Watford, shot against Burnley).
I’m not a big fan of either of their central defenders and think they’re both a bit oafish. If you can get them into situations where you’re running at them, neither of them are able to turn quickly enough to deal with that.
Chelsea’s players did this relentlessly and Che Adams rinsed Lindelöf doing this too. Could play into Bowen and Antonio’s hands. Might also be a chance to play Masuaku in front of Cresswell, if we want to go fully rogue.
Both their CBs have a tendency to follow the player they’re marking really far up the pitch. If you have a striker who knows when to drop deep, you can exploit that easily by playing a quick combination to get in behind them:
Antonio’s play with his back to goal has been great lately, but this could be a good game to give Haller a start. I think this is another reason to avoid playing Noble: having a runner to link with Antonio/Haller in these situations would make it easier to capitalise on the space you can create by drawing Lindelöf/Maguire out.
Set Pieces
Watching the Southampton game, Manchester United’s set up from corners in the first half seemed exploitable:
I get the theory behind it — Matić/AWB/Shaw blocking runners, Lindelöf man-marking, numbers at the front post, Greenwood sweeping up the edge, and Maguire free in the heart of the box to attack the delivery.
In practice, it seems vulnerable. Fernandes, Martial, and Rashford are just bodies at the near post and aren’t going to prevent anyone who gets into that space from winning the ball. Pogba’s tall but not exactly commanding in the air and while Maguire has that free role to head away the cross, he has a lot of players in his way there and isn’t the most agile, so he’s effectively doing nothing if the delivery is good to the near or far post.
And, shock horror, Southampton’s equaliser came from a corner that highlighted this set-up’s deficiencies:
That sort of near post flick routine resulted in Souček’s disallowed goal vs Chelsea and Antonio’s 1st vs Norwich, while back post deliveries set up Souček’s goals vs Chelsea (the actual, non-VAR one) and against Newcastle. Bowen’s set pieces are good enough to take Maguire out of the equation and to find the weaknesses in their organisation.
They definitely used it vs Sheffield United post-restart, although Martial moved to block the extra attacker:
They hadn’t adjusted this set up vs Chelsea at the weekend, so it’s still vulnerable to attack.
Keys to the Game
- They’re going to attack and create overloads down our right side, so flood that side of the pitch defensively. They’re going to try to launch counters down that side too, so don’t leave Ben Johnson isolated
- Cut off access to Pogba during deep build-up. If Shaw isn’t playing, Bowen can afford to push up onto Matić to stifle their ball progression
- Our strikers can manufacture space in behind if they drop deep while being marked by Manchester United’s CBS. It’s an avenue to create our own counterattacking situations
- Dribble directly at their CBs, they’re a pair of statues
- Haven’t even touched on De Gea, who has had crisp packet wrists lately. Give him shots to save. Test him early, test him often.
- Don’t even sneeze on them when they get into the box. Manchester United have won 23 penalties this season
