January 2020 Transfer Window: The Ones That Got Away
We’re almost two weeks removed from the transfer window closing and it feels like it never happened at all.
Undoubtedly the biggest signing of the window was Borussia Dortmund’s capture of Erling Braut Håland, who instantly repaid their faith with 5 goals in his first two appearances off the bench.
But beyond him, activity was relatively sparse. The only other big ticket signings were Christian Eriksen to Inter and Bruno Fernandes to Manchester United. Other than that, there was a smattering of current and former wonderkids moving around for decent sums: Dani Olmo to RB Leipzig; Exequiel Palacios to Bayer Leverkusen; Sander Berge to Sheffield United; Reinier to Real Madrid; Steven Bergwijn to Tottenham Hotspur; Dejan Kulusevski to Juventus
But generally clubs found business hard to do for whatever reason. So here’s a look at some players that should’ve been on the move this winter but have been left on the table instead.
Defence
Borna Barišić, 27, LB, Rangers
Tall, technically gifted, composed in possession, general creative force from left-back: Barišić has all the hallmarks of a quality full-back for a side looking to build from the back.
Numbers for the Scottish Premiership are quite hard to come by, but thanks to the diligent data collection efforts from the lads at Modern Fitba, we can see that by April of last season, Barišić was second only to fellow Rangers FB James Tavernier when it came to Key Passes p/90.
Such numbers aren’t available for this season yet, but we can look at the headline figures to get an idea of what he’s providing: 2 goals and 7 assists from his 20 league starts is a great contribution from LB.
Fortunately, there’s a bit more info around for his Europa League participation though. In the 6 Europa League group games, he’s added a further 4 assists and put up 2.7 Key Passes p/90 (in line with his domestic numbers from last season) in a competitive group that Rangers did well to qualify from.
He’s not the most athletic player in the world, so he’s not going to be charging forward on the overlap for 90 minutes or going on mazy dribbles past his opponents, but if you want quality delivery from out wide, an eye for a pass, and a set piece threat from both corners and direct free-kicks, he’s your man. Here’s a flavour of the sort of thing you can expect:
Luckily for Rangers, he signed a new 4-year contract at the end of January, so it’ll cost a small fortune to prise away a player who is in the middle of his prime.
Omar Colley, 27, CB, Sampdoria
Colley’s a left-footed CB, a commodity craved by possession-oriented managers for the balance it brings a team that’s trying to pass its way through the thirds.
But what perhaps makes Colley even more intriguing his ability to play on the cover, rather than on the front foot. Central defenders who want to step forward out of the defensive line to aggressively win the ball back are commonplace; players who are happy sweeping up and biding their time are much rarer and more valuable.
This playing style is reflected in his performance data: he averages 1.8 attempted tackles p/90 (not an enormous amount for a central defender) but completes 1.5 of them, suggesting that this is a player who picks and chooses his moments carefully. That becomes obvious when you watch him: Colley’s a considered defender who reads the game properly and positions himself intelligently to mop up stray passes to win the ball back for his team, rather than crunching into direct challenges.
He’s not the most dominant player in the air and he’s composed enough in possession without being an especially accomplished passer, but Colley’s got the fundamentals locked down enough to be a solid contributor to any side looking to bolster their backline.
The big question mark is how well he’d translate to different styles of play: he’s currently thriving in a typical Claudio Ranieri low block 4–4–2, so how well Colley’s skillset works in sides who play more expansive football or defend in a higher line remains to be seen. As long as he’s not too expensive, he could well be worth a gamble.
Midfield
Josh Dasilva, 21, CM, Brentford
Brentford’s BMW (Benrahma, Mbeumo, Watkins) has attracted all the headlines, but it’s the engine of this side that is one of its most valuable parts.
Recently the west London side seems to have dispelled some of their reputation as a bit of a soft touch as they charge towards promotion in their last season at Griffin Park. A large part of that is down to Thomas Frank’s organisational skills and his decision to make Dasilva a mainstay in the centre of the park.
The Arsenal academy graduate turned down a contract extension at the Emirates in 2018 and instead chose to join Brentford on a free transfer, where he has progressed through their B team system into becoming a fully fledged first team regular this season.
Dasilva’s a wonderful player to watch: built like a target man but dribbles like a winger. His combination of co-ordination and elegance with his physique make him a mismatch from most Championship midfields and his skillset is one that’ll catapult him to higher levels of the game in no time at all.
Something that helps Dasilva is the clear division of labour within Brentford’s midfield: Christian Nørgaard destroys, Mathias Jensen creates, which liberates Josh Dasilva to do what he does best. Which, it turns out, is a little bit of everything.
In per 90 averages, Dasilva puts up 1.4 shots per game, 1.3 tackles*, 2.3 attempted dribbles (5th best amongst Championship central midfielders) of which 1.7 are successful(4th best total), and 1.7 key passes (13th highest; Jensen’s 2nd).
(*) a relatively low amount for a CM but that’s partially explained by Nørgaard’s monstrous 3 tackles and 2.3 interceptions per 90
The data paints a picture of a player who is primarily a ball carrier but one that’s a bit of an all-rounder, which is an accurate reflection of his performances this season. None of his metrics, aside from perhaps the dribbling, are individually outstanding but the combination of them is — there are very few players who are this well-rounded, especially at 21 years old.
What his shot numbers don’t reflect is exactly what he’s doing with those shots. The boy loves a banger from range:
He’s also capable of this, which, if intentional, is one of the more outrageous pieces of skill you’re likely to see:
He’s still relatively inexperienced, with only 45 senior appearances to his name at 21, so he has some catching up to do, but the sky’s the limit for this lad. He’ll be formidable opponent for Premier League sides for years to come. If Brentford miss out on promotion, the vultures will descend on their forwards but Dasilva’s the one I’d be chucking my cash at.
Attack
Ludovic Ajorque, 25, ST, RC Strasbourg
Ligue 1 continues to be an unceasing conveyor belt of talent, churning out immensely talented footballers year after year, despite it’s unfair reputation as a farmer’s league. There are countless players who could be plucked out of France and go on to do fantastic things, but I thought I’d go for a slightly less heralded option from a slightly less heralded club.
RC Strasbourg are this season’s surprise package, currently sitting in a lofty 6th place, ahead of Monaco, Bordeaux, and Lyon. It’s not a fluke either: Fbref’s numbers (provided by Statsbomb) have Strasbourg as the side with the 5th best xG Difference per game, only marginally behind Lille’s numbers in 4th place.
The Alsatian club’s rise up the table has been spearheaded by the man who leads the line for them: Ludovic Ajorque.
Although he’s a bustling, left-footed target man, Ajorque is mobile and is capable of drifting out to the flanks to create space for his attacking partners (usually Lebo Mothiba) to fill the box. He’s scored 8 goals off 6.3 xG, 3 of which have been headers (tied for most in Ligue 1 with Habib Diallo, Yunis Abdelhamid, and former Wigan legend Andy Delort). Those 3 goals have come from 13 headed shots (8th highest in the league).
With those headers, there’s plenty of variety:
1)
2)
Powerful header after a dart to the penalty spot against Montpellier.
3)
But Ajorque’s more than just a totem pole. He’s capable of being a threat in behind on the break:
And he’s also a poacher. Watch his movement for his goal against Nîmes:
He starts in a central position and then makes a run between two defenders in anticipation of the cross. When it doesn’t come, he brings himself back out, hangs around the blindside of the covering right full-back and then attacks the far post for the tap-in.
Ajorque employs similar movement to get on the end of this delightful Strasbourg team goal against Monaco:
He starts off out left and initially offers short, before making that run on the blindside of the full-back, nipping in behind him to finish off the move.
This tendency to pull into the left channel as a left-footed forward makes him slightly unusual and makes him a different sort of threat for defenders. It allows him to be a creative force too, as he’s laid on 4 assists (from 2.8 xA) for his team-mates in his 21 league appearances so far this season. The assist for Majeed Waris highlights how Ajorque’s mobility causes defenders problems:
He starts centrally, makes that same run out wide from in-to-out, which gives Waris the space to carry the ball forward and isolates the Reims RB. When the ball arrives at Ajorque’s feet, he plays an intelligent first time pass into a dangerous area for his pal to finish off.
I’ve not really seen enough of him to know how good he is with his back to goal or how good his combination play around the edge of the box is, though. A pass completion of ~70% (down from ~75% last season) is a little on the low side but that might be because he’s attempting more difficult passes — Ajorque’s 0.7 key passes per 90 is 17th amongst strikers in Ligue 1 this season.
Part of what makes Strasbourg such an interesting prospect is that their style of play is quite ball dominant; often upstart underdogs rise up the table by employing a counter attacking style where they surrender possession and strike quickly on the break. Instead Strasbourg look to build and as a result, their forwards see a lot of the ball (Ajorque’s 21.4 passes per 90 is 10th amongst strikers in Ligue ).
He turns that possession into 2.3 shots per game (16th highest among strikers), with 1.7 of those coming inside the box (9th highest). The locations of those shots are particularly intriguing:
There are very few speculative long range efforts here and Ajorque’s in-to-out runs and tendency to drift out to the left are captured in this shot map, with the majority of these coming from the left side of the box, outside the width of the goal frame.
That in itself might not be that unusual for a player who has played as part of a front two, but what makes this shot map so fascinating is that most of the shots from this area are left-footed (of Ajorque’s 45 shots this season, 25 are left-footed, 13 are headers and just 6 are right-footed (with one mysteriously labelled as “Other” on WhoScored).
Ajorque’s shot locations are what you might expect from a right-footed player who cuts inside from the left wing to get his shots. But even then, those types of players generally take their shots from wider angles; the density of Ajorque’s shots in that channel between the left-most edge of the 6-yard box and the penalty spot is pretty unique.
The closest analogue is perhaps someone like Raheem Sterling:
Sterling’s clearly a vastly superior player on a vastly superior team and, as such, is taking vastly higher quality shots, but they’re generally in the same region as Ajorque (although it’s clear that Sterling is better at getting across to the front post from his wide left starting point and he also has some of those more typical inside forward wide angle shots). But Ajorque’s ability to take left-footed shots from that left/central position in the area is unusual and makes him a different sort of proposition for opposition defenders and goalkeepers to deal with.
He got 9 goals and 1 assist from 5.5 xG and 1.0 xA in ~1500 minutes last season, so combine that with his 8 goals and 4 assists (6.3 xG and 2.8 xA) from ~1800 minutes this season and you’ve got 18 months of solid performances where his data has improved from him. He’s 26 at the end of February, so he’s likely just about to hit his prime and wouldn’t cost a fortune. Every midtable Premier League club should be looking long and hard at him.
He’d be an ideal long term replacement for Troy Deeney, provided they stay up, and would fit in well as a rotation option at Sheffield United, a Benteke replacement at Palace, or even as a partner for Chris Wood at Burnley.
