Is it time to take Odsonne Edouard and Alfredo Morelos seriously?
The level of club football in Scotland isn’t great. There’s no getting around that and a lot of fans don’t bother trying, instead opting for an “it’s shite, but it’s our shite” defence.
As such, that makes it difficult to evaluate how well good performances in the Scottish Premiership will translate to a higher standard of football. It’s something that applies to all of the smaller leagues and something that wealthier clubs are wary of, having been burnt previously by the Cenk Tosuns, Vincent Janssons, and Oumar Niasses of the world who score goals for fun at one standard, get bought for a significant fee, and then fall off the face of the earth in terms of effectiveness when they play against better opponents.
But the performances of Moussa Dembélé at Lyon following his transfer from Celtic perhaps suggests that doing well in Scotland can be an indicator of genuine quality. With that in mind, it’s worth looking at another couple of Old Firm strikers who have been amongst the goals to see whether they would be worth taking a punt on.
Dembélé’s scored 6 goals in 8 Ligue 1 games this season following on from 15 in 33 (21 starts) in his debut season in France. (Those 21 goals have included one penalty and the remaining 20 have been scored from an non-penalty xG of 16.2, suggesting that he has been running slightly hot. That overperformance has come almost entirely at the start of the 19/20 season (6 goals off 2.2 xG compared to 15 goals off 14.0 non-pen xG in 18/19). That could well even itself out a bit over the course of the season).
A goal every other game in a top 5 European league is impressive stuff and it’s a promising sign that a player who was thriving in the SPL is capable of replicating that elsewhere. If we want to see whether Odsonne Edouard and Alfredo Morelos measure up and have the potential to make that leap, we need to look at the benchmark that Dembélé set while he was in Scotland.
In the two full seasons at Celtic, Moussa Dembélé weighed in with 17 goals and 8 assists in 29 league appearances (20 starts) and then 9 goals and 7 assists in 25 league appearances (17 starts). The dip in that second season can be accounted for by a hamstring injury over the summer that cost him a proper pre-season and a falling out with Brendan Rodgers (supposedly due to the striker’s refusal to accept a move to Brighton in January 2018) that limited his game time.
Even so, Dembélé left Glasgow with a goalscoring record just shy of 1 in 2 in the league. Impressive as that is, it was his efforts in continental and international football during this spell that would have encouraged Lyon to part with £20million+ for his talents. Across those two seasons, Dembélé wracked up 4 goals in 10 Champions League Group Stage games, in addition to 5 in 11 qualifying round fixtures. In the summer following his move from Fulham, Dembélé made his debut for France’s under-21 side and went on to score 13 goals in 23 appearances, including 1 in 3 appearances at the UEFA under-21 Championship in June of this year.
Odsonne Edouard:
Given that Edouard is both French and Dembélé’s direct replacement at Celtic, starting with him is the obvious choice.
Edouard’s just started his 3rd season in Glasgow and has come racing out of the blocks, with 5 goals and 2 assists in his opening 7 Premiership games, 6 of which have been starts. In his two full seasons, he’s managed:
17/18: 9 goals + 2 assists in 22 apps (12 starts)
18/19: 15 goals + 5 assists in 32 apps (22 starts)
That leaves Edouard with 24 in 54 vs Dembélé’s 26 in 55, although it should be noted that 5 of Dembélé’s goals were penalties, whereas none of Edouard’s have been.
Comprehensive stats for the Scottish Premiership are hard to come by and Fbref doesn’t seem to have shot data for the 18/19 season. Working with what we’ve got, here’s the per 90 comparison between the two (Dembélé’s is the average across his 3 seasons vs Edouard’s numbers for his only full season with data, 17/18):
Dembélé — non-pen G+A: 0.86/ Shots on Target: 1.77
Edouard — non-pen G+A: 0.93/ Shots on Target: 1.43
There’s potentially not that much to be learned from this, given that we’re looking at Edouard at age 19 vs Dembélé at age 20/21/22, but something that jumps out is that Edouard seems to be a more rounded chance creator for his team at the expense of taking some shots on himself, making him less of a direct goal threat than his predecessor. (Dembélé’s currently throwing in 0.82 non-pen G+A and 1.65 Shots on Target across his two seasons at Lyon, suggesting that his performances in Scotland have been largely repeatable).
So far so good for Edouard in league football, but does he stack up when it comes to playing in Europe?
In his first season at Celtic, he played a grand total of 43 minutes of European football thanks to 2 sub appearances in the Champions League and 1 in the Europa League, so it feels a little unfair to include those.
Since then, he’s clocked 3 goals in 10 games (8 starts) in the Europa League group stages (per 90 numbers — non-pen G+A: 0.37/ non-pen xG+xA: 0.27/ SoT: 0.86). That’s a considerable drop off from his league numbers and enough to trigger some questions about his overall ability.
Unlike Dembélé, he’s not had the chance to test himself in the Champions League due to Celtic’s general underperformance (although he has managed 5 goals and 3 assists in 10 qualifying round appearances). Perhaps being overmatched in that superior competition allowed Celtic to play more on the break, catering to Dembélé’s strengths and allowing him to impress at that level. That’s pure speculation, but it might be worth something exploring before writing Edouard off completely.
Internationally, Edouard has been in scorching form, chalking up a whopping 9 goals in 4 under-21 appearances. More than half of those have come in his last two games (against admittedly quite lowly opposition) during the most recent international break and they showcase the toolkit that Edouard is working with.
Edouard 1st goal vs Azerbaijan:
In the first minute of the game, Edouard demonstrates his alertness to adopt a smart position so he can make the most of the sloppy turn over and then has the patience to hold his run. Once the ball arrives at his feet, he plants an assured first time sidefoot finish across the goalkeeper.
Edouard 2nd goal vs Azerbaijan:
As soon as Guendouzi gets the ball under control down in the right-back zone, Edouard is on the move, peeling off the blindside of his marker on the halfway line. The pass is clipped forward and from there, it’s all about the striker’s technical quality: he murders the opposition right-back with an outrageously delicate touch, squares up the covering defender on the dribble, checks inside to a more dangerous shooting location, and then trickles the shot home.
Edouard 1st goal vs Slovakia:
Another that showcases his positional intelligence. Edouard drifts offside in the initial build-up before moving back in-between the two central defenders. As France progress into the box down the left channel, the striker makes a little feint run to the near post before ghosting off the back of his marker to make a simple tap-in inside the 6-yard box.
Edouard 2nd goal vs Slovakia:
More intelligent movement from Edouard. As play builds down the right, the striker drops off the defensive line to provide a link-up option inside. He’s ignored this time, but that deeper starting position enables him to pounce on Diaby’s deflected cross. The ball sits up nicely after his first touch and he slams the shot past the ‘keeper.
Edouard 3rd goal vs Slovakia:
Very similar to the previous one: Edouard drops to provide an option for the player on the ball. The pass is played through to the right winger instead, who beats his opponent on the dribble this time. Edouard is smart enough to hold his run so he can arrive onto the cut back and sweep the ball home first time to wrap up his hat-trick.
While the quality of the opponent might not be spectacular, there’s lots to admire about Edouard’s game from these goals and there’s enough juice in his numbers thus far to make him an intriguing prospect.
Alfredo Morelos
Like Edouard, Morelos is at the start of his 3rd season in Scotland and has started the season equally well, with 5 goals in 8 appearances. Only 4 of those appearances have been starts though, as Gerrard has been splitting Premiership game time between Morelos and Defoe, while favouring the Colombian in Rangers’ Europa League games.
In his two complete seasons, Morelos has put up 14 goals + 6 assists in 35 apps (29 starts) followed by 18 goals + 3 assists in 30 apps (27 starts); 32 goals (none of which were penalties) in 65 games is more than either of the Celtic forwards managed. There’s no shot data from 18/19, but comparing Morelos’ 17/18 data to the other two looks like so:
Dembélé — non-pen G+A: 0.86/ Shots on Target: 1.77
Edouard — non-pen G+A: 0.93/ Shots on Target: 1.43
Morelos — non-pen G+A: 0.71/ Shots on Target: 1.07
On the face of it Morelos, looks to be a far less effective player, putting up fewer shots and contributing to fewer goals for his side overall compared to the other two. There are all sorts of caveats that can be applied to this though — Celtic were a far more dominant team than Rangers in those two seasons for one — and the pure shots on target means little without knowing about the quality of those shots. At first glance though, Morelos is less active than the other two but has sustained his performances across a greater number of minutes.
Fortunately, Statsbomb are to the rescue, providing a radar for Morelos’ second season (18/19) :
This is a solid poacher’s profile, with that 0.58 xG per 90 a very healthy figure and his 18 goals coming from a combined 15 xG, suggests that there’s not an enormous amount of overperformance going on there. That’s backed up with the shot map, which showcases a lot of good locations, including plenty in/along the 6-yard box, although he does seem a bit trigger happy from the right-hand channel of the area; he scored 4 (arguably 5) goals from that region though, so maybe he’s onto something there.
In Europe things are pretty rosy too, with 3 goals in 7 group stage apps across two seasons, including this one(all starts). That’s 0.44 non-pen G+A/0.48 non-pen xG+xA/1.6 SoT; considerably better expected and actual goal contribution than Edouard and almost twice as many shots. It’s hard to draw a direct comparison between the two there without further delving into the strength of Celtic and Ranger’s respective group stage opponents though.
At the age of 23, Morelos has made 3 senior international appearances for Colombia, an impressive feat considering he is competing for a place with Luis Muriel, Duván Zapata, and whatever’s left of Radamel Falcao. Morelos has yet to score thus far, however.
Morelos header vs Midtjylland:
Morelos displays a similar bit of movement to a couple of the Edouard goals by initially floating towards his central midfielder to provide a central passing option before attacking the heart of the 6-yard box to get on the end of Tavernier’s whipped cross.
Morelos 1st goal vs Hibernian:
Rangers’ pressing forces a sloppy pass off a Hibs throw-in. Morelos gobbles up the loose ball and shows what an impressive physical competitor he is: burning past the left-back on the dribble and strong enough to hold off the covering defender, who bounces off the striker twice. Once there, he hits a fairly tame shot that the ‘keeper should do better with. Whether this is an indicator of Morelos’ physical dominance or the piss poor standard of the Scottish Premiership is up for debate.
Morelos goal vs Young Boys:
The opening goal in the Europa League group game against Young Boys shows what Morelos is all about: the intelligence to make an early run on the wrong side of the defender to get on the end of Barišić’s through ball; the upper body strength to hold him off as the defender scrambles to get back; and the composure to cut inside and pick his moment, and his spot, for the finish.
Morelos has the skillset to be both an effective counterattacking threat as well as a pure penalty area poacher and that makes him an exciting player. There have been big question marks about his temperament (10 yellow cards and 4 reds last season) but he appears to have ironed out some of those issues recently. If those problems are behind him and he continues to put up numbers like this, Morelos could easily be considered Colombia’s finest export…
There are reasons to be sceptical about the quality of Odsonne Edouard and Alfredo Morelos given the standard of football that they’re currently excelling at; it remains to be seen whether they’re more Scott Sinclair and Gary Hooper than Virgil van Dijk and Victor Wanyama.
But they’re currently putting in performances in the Scottish Premiership, as well as in Europe and under-21 international football, akin to Moussa Dembélé’s during his time in Scotland, a player who has gone on to replicate that performance level and thrive at a higher standard of football.
If I were a mid-table Premier League club looking for a potential game changer upfront without breaking the bank (Watford, Palace, Villa, Southampton, Vardy replacement at Leicester even?), I’d be casting my eyes north of the border and monitoring the Old Firm very carefully for the remainder of this season.
